Super Supercell

Supercells are the most intense thunderstorms in the Earth’s atmosphere. A supercell thunderstorm always rotates and produce most cases of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight-line winds.

There are four key ingredients for supercell thunderstorms to form.
1) An environment that is conditionally unstable.
2) Very moist air in the lower troposphere.
3) moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
4) A trigger mechanism – lifting along a boundary.

Supercell

Once developed, a supercell would look like the the schematic above. The first thing to look at is the color shaded regions on the inside. From blue to red, this is the approximate strength of rain fall in the supercell. The area shaded in red, is the area most likely to have hail. The forward-flank downdraft also has to do with the high reflectivity due to its origin being right in that area. Air gets sucked into the storm via inflow right into the updraft. The updraft lifts air into the atmosphere, it is one reason that hail is seen just upstream from it. The rear-flank downdraft is seen in the back. As the rear-flank updraft wraps itself around the updraft, a hook forms at the tail of the storm. This hook is commonly associated with tornadic weather, as it gains lots of rotation, and then a tornado forms.

Supercell

Supercells are extremely dangerous, but can be warned of ahead of time once properly identified. With strong winds, large hail, and tornadic activity, a supercell can be storm chasers dream, but an unlucky persons nightmare.

- Tyler Reis

Wicked weather

As of late the weather has been kind of crazy across the globe. From wicked cold fronts bringing the first few flakes of snow across the region today in North Dakota, to volcanic eruptions in Hawaii, to the extreme thunderstorm that hit Melbourne, Australia this weekend. Conspiracy theorist alike will want to claim that it was the government or that some kind of space alien is trying to control the weather. But what has been the cause of the severe weather this year? As I mentioned in an earlier post, this year has seen a large number of hurricanes affecting the west coast, and likewise the pacific in general has been a hot bed of storm activity. Melbourne over the weekend received a beautiful to watch thunderstorm that also dumped over an inch of rain by 0900. What makes this remarkable is the fact that that one storm produced the most rain the city had received in over a year. What makes it more impressive? Eighty thousand lightning strikes! A single storm producing that much energy does major damage no matter where it is. As a result the cities electrical system was overwhelmed and power went out across the city. Likewise Hawaii is going through another round of volcanic eruptions. That means an effect on travelling to and from Hawaii. Typically speaking volcanic eruptions while causing massive amount of damage on the ground, and disrupting flights, are not that big of a deal.

But conspiracy theorist will try and blame the volcano in Hawaii causing the thunderstorm in Australia, and the subsequent ash cloud from the volcano in Hawaii, drifting in the air current and causing the cool down to happen In North Dakota. Some will attribute this to the Butterfly effect, the idea that if a butterfly flaps its wings in South America it has the energy to change the weather in North America just by the disturbance in nature.

So is this possible? The short answer is this, No. But to elaborate scientist theorize these exact same questions. Math formula after math formula on what the potential change is brought about by the effect of ash clouds. But not only ash clouds but also by the simplest smallest cloud in the atmosphere, and how it affects the heating of the atmosphere. So how do clouds affect the atmosphere? Typically even the biggest thunderstorms only inhibit the temperature to increase by a few degrees. So what would have been 78°F is only 74°F. So unfortunately for conspiracy theorist they will need a bigger volcano to erupt before blaming the government or aliens as to the wicked weather as of late.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-29782523

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29805102

-Clint Leeper

Halloween: Who’s going to be miserable this year?

Well it’s that time of year again. The month of October is coming to a close, and what better way to celebrate the end by going out to stranger’s houses, dressed in a costume, and getting free candy. That’s what many kids will be doing on October 31st. While I won’t be getting free candy, one is never too old to get free candy. I may need to rethink my plans. We are talking about free candy. Sure I could buy my own but everything taste better when it’s free.

Man, Halloween sure does bring back the memories. Whether it was going to the store to pick out a costume or having my mom make me one, I always looked forward to that day. Once I was dressed up in my costume, I would go get my bucket which would hopefully get filled up many times. Excited to get started, I would run toward the door. But before I could make it there, I would run into my mom holding my winter coat.
“You need to put this on,” she’d say.
I couldn’t but help think, ‘really?’ Sure enough I would go outside and it would be cold. What was the point of dressing up? I should have just been an Eskimo every year.

So who will have a miserable time trick-or-treating this year. It looks like the Northeast is looking at possible accumulating snow. And if they aren’t getting snow, then rain will be in the forecast. To top it off, it will be windy and cold too.

They won’t be the only miserable ones. It looks like the Midwestern states west of the Dakotas and north of the southern states will be cold too. The deep Southeast will be cooler. And no surprise, Washington and Oregon will be wet. Everyone else will be mild and dry.

The forecast for Grand Forks, as of now, is a high of 39 and sunny while the night will be partly cloudy and dip down to 27. While this isn’t horrible, but it isn’t ideal either.

With my experience with cold Halloweens, why don’t we take time off of school and go south for Halloween? Who cares about Spring Break, Halloween could be the replacement. I mean the college girls like to dress up or I guess I should say hardly put anything on. With that in mind, wouldn’t they be more comfortable farther south? Also, the younger kids could actually wear their costumes and wouldn’t have to have a pocket full of tissues for their runny nose all while enjoying Halloween.

However you are spending your Halloween this year, be safe, stay warm, and get lots of candy.

-Ben L

Images from http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-faces-cold-halloween-stor/36303863

Solar Eclipse 101

If you’ve been paying attention to the news, you might have heard that there was a partial solar eclipse today over much of the US. Here in Grand Forks, ND, the eclipse began about 4:45pm CDT. While you should never look at the sun with the naked eye, you can view a solar eclipse by making a simple pinhole projector out of an ordinary shoe box (Directions here: http://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/make-pinhole-projector.html).
This will give you a projection of the eclipse, much like the one pictured below.

Projected partial solar eclipse.

Pinhole Projector

A few media outlets also had live blogs with views of the eclipse, like the one from the Huffington Post shown in the picture below.

So what causes a solar eclipse? Well, basically, when the moon orbits the earth, it passes between the earth and the sun. This creates a shadow on the earth as the moon blocks incoming sunlight. NASA has a great diagram of this, posted below.

Solar Eclipse Explanation

Our eclipse today was only a partial solar eclipse, which happens when the sun, moon, and the earth are not totally lined up, causing a shadow to appear on only a part of the sun’s surface. A total solar eclipse is when all three are exactly lined up, blocking out the sun completely for a small area on the earth and partially for a much wider area.

If you missed this solar eclipse, don’t worry! According to NASA, a total solar eclipse will occur over parts of the United States on August 21, 2017. So mark your calendars! (And save some shoe boxes!)

Solar Eclipse Path 2017 Source: www.timeanddate.com

-Logan Lee

The Real “Windy City”

Webster’s dictionary defines wind as “a natural movement of air of any velocity; especially: the earth’s air or the gas surrounding a planet in natural motion horizontally.” This is quite a lengthy definition for the atmospheric phenomena that messes up everyone’s hair. Or the thing that spreads all of the leaves that were once in a pile, back all over your yard. What causes the wind to blow?

The answer is the Pressure Gradient Force (PGF). When the isobars are packed tightly together on a constant pressure chart that means that in that area it will be more windy. When the isobars are a lot more spread out, the wind will be more calm.

The area circled in “Red” shows tightly packed isobars.
The area circled in “Blue” shows loosely packed isobars.

This map made me wonder, is Chicago worthy of the name “The Windy City”?
According to the Washington Post, the top five windiest states are Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Iowa, respectively. Notice how Illinois does not make the list. It is hard to believe “The Windy City”‘s state didn’t make the top five. I searched for a list of the true “Windiest Cities in America”, this is where things got interesting!

“The Windy City” of Chicago

Every list I found, had a different answer to what city is the windiest; however, they all agreed that it was not Chicago. Chicago rarely even reached the top 15 cities! This is where I would like to make a proposal.

Grand Forks had wind gusts of 39 mph yesterday and a max sustained wind speed of 32 mph. That is very windy! And the wind seems to be blowing everyday (due to that tight pressure gradient force). How about we nickname Grand Forks, “The New Windy City”?

-Joe Heiden

God is not bowling.

As a child, you heard many fairytale-esque explanations for where thunder comes from. Many parents say tell their children that God is bowling and thunder is the ball being thrown down the lane. Or sometimes the giant at the top of the beanstalk is really hungry and his stomach is rumbling. These explanations help many children cope with their fear induced by thunderstorm activity. If you want to still believe these myths, go ahead. I will share with you the real story, which does not include a party in the sky. Unless you think thunderstorms are cool, like me!

Thunderstorms are caused by the right mixture of atmospheric moisture and instability. Thunderstorms almost always produce lightning and thunder, as their name inherently implies. Which comes first, the thunder or the lightning? As a child, you may have also counted the seconds after a lightning strike to determine how far away the storm actually is. This is correct in practice, but some children do not have the mathematics quite right. Lightning is the creator of thunder. Light also travels faster than sound. To determine how far away the storm is, a person must first know how fast light and sound travel. As it turns out, it takes roughly five seconds for sound waves to travel a mile.

So where does the sound come from if its not a sky-high bowling league? The sound of thunder is caused by lightning and its electricity quickly forcing apart air particles. That force causes vibrations. Vibrations are the reason that we hear sound. When lightning strikes very near you, the vibrations are intense and quickly follow the lightning strike. This is because the sound has not had much to bounce off of before it reached your ear. The long, rumbling thunder that is characteristic of thunderstorms is caused by the same process. However, you may be farther from the source of lightning. The sound waves have more obstacles to bounce off of (i.e. ground, trees, buildings, etc.) before they reach your ear. The result is a much longer and less intense rumble. Neat, huh?

-Brianna Kump

Crossing the Blue Line

My father used to work as a TV anchor at a small network in Vermont right after college. I am sure he was good at reporting on news and local events, but one day the weathercaster called in sick and he was forced to do the stations weather segment. Without thinking too far in advance, he got up and was standing in front of a green screen pointing at various atmospheric features of which he had no knowledge about. Pointing out a specific item, he very solemnly told everyone in Burlington, VT to watch out for this approaching blue “spiky” line from the west. And moved on. Presumably Vermont survived the great attack of the spiky blue line, but what was he actually talking about that day?


Bane of Vermont, circa 1983.

On weather charts, blue lines with protruding triangles are denoting something called a cold front. Cold fronts are a very familiar atmospheric phenomenon and can sometimes result in extremely dramatic looking skies. Put simply, a cold front is simply a large mass of relatively colder air invading space occupied by relatively warmer air. Generally, they act like a snow plow to the air already in place by pushing it all upwards higher into the sky. It is this lifting action that creates the clouds and rain that weathercasters forecast for a frontal passage event.


Fronts in your mirror may be colder than they appear.

So what exactly happens when a cold front passes? Well, the obvious answer is that the temperature drops, since by its name, coldness is implied. Some other, more subtle things do occur though. Due to the genesis of a cold front, it sits in an area of low pressure. So as a front approaches, the atmospheric pressure around one will fall. This is because a cold front actually cannot move on its own. Rather, it must be attached to a low pressure system (those giant, red Ls that one might find on a weather chart) which in the northern hemisphere rotates all the air counter clockwise. This rotation of the air (wind) moves the cold air. As all the warm air gets lifted above (this is called Isentropic Lift, remember that; it might be a trivia question at your local bar next week) it cools rapidly which produces all of the moisture such as clouds and rain which can help make a cold front visible to the naked eye. Another telltale sign that a cold front has passed is the change in wind direction. As everything flows counter clockwise around a low pressure system, the cold front must too. The direction of movement will lend a change in wind direction to wind coming from the west-northwest. After the front has passed, certain things start to undo themselves. Mainly, the pressure will begin to rise as the low pressure system skirts away. Markedly colder temperatures will now inhabit the area and everyone might be slightly damper.


Cold air meet warm air. Warm air, prepare to get high(er).

There is a ton of science going on here that certain people have devoted their lives to studying that simply can’t be fully discussed in a mere blog post, but at least now anyone who read this is slightly better equipped to discuss that feature that my family name nearly incited as a horseman of the apocalypse.

Brendan Farmer

What’s the Wind Chill?!?!

Well everybody it is time once again to “snowsuit up” and prepare for the some of the coldest weather mother nature has to offer. 2 weeks ago i spoke about the main thing people fear during the winter, blizzards. However one of the main daily factors people care about during the winters here in the Upper Midwest, the Wind Chill. Everyone knows that the “Wind chill Factor” makes the temperature outside feel even colder, but what are the true dangers and science behind this seemingly mundane fact. Below is the National Weather Service’s Wind Chill Index and calculator.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml

Wind Chill is dangerous because the effect of the wind blowing over the skin pulls moisture out of your skin, causing the skin to dry and crack. This in turn causes the skin to lose heat much faster because the moisture in the skin helps hold in some heat. After prolonged exposure the exposed skin can develop what we know as frostbite. Frostbite, is of course very dangerous because it can cause a permanent loss of feeling in the affected flesh. For more information I have linked a description to the Mayo Clinic’s page below:

http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/frostbite/basics/definition/con-20034608

The dangers of Wind Chill during the winter are very real, and during the days when people are most vulnerable to extreme frostbite, the National Weather Service will issue a “Wind Chill Advisory” to warn people of the dangers of leaving skin exposed outdoors. So remember everyone, when the weather is cold, and the winds are strong, get out those winter snowsuits and stay warm.

~ Sam Umhoefer

Bombogenesis Season

It is bombogenesis season, which means we have to be on the lookout for one of the most exciting weather events known. What is a bombogenesis? A bombogenesis is when a mid-latitude cyclone drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period. The height contours pack around the center of the low, and brings strong winds and precipitation, and potential blizzard conditions during the winter.

Surface Pressure Map

The most common time of the year for them to occur is in the cool season between October and March, when temperature gradients are large between high and mid-latitudes. They occur with cold air masses meeting warmer air masses, with strong divergence aloft, and a strong jet streak diving aloft.

4 years ago this month, the people in the upper Midwest got to experience such an event (Both images from said event). It brought a new record low pressure to the state of Minnesota of 955.2 mb (which is equivalent to about what a category 3 hurricane would produce), and 40+ MPH winds throughout the upper portion of the state and even some strong snow totals up around 7 inches. I just remember it being constantly rainy with strong winds for about 2 days here in Grand Forks, and it was miserable but exciting. There was also recently a case in January over the Northeast, which was known as winter storm Janus, which brought about snow totals of over a foot of snow in a single day over most of the northeast.

Map

But it is that time of the year for these storms, and everyone should be on the lookout as these weather bombs can bring exciting but possible harmful weather into the region.

- Tyler Reis

Meteorology: Just Another Retail Business

How can meteorology be similar to a retail business? It starts with the models. The models would be the companies that produce products that are sold in stores. Models have little interaction with the customers. They do however produce a product that
everyone wants. That product is a weather forecast.

The people that try to sell the product are broadcast meteorologists. They acquire these models and act as sales and cashiers trying to sell the product. Most of the time, people are satisfied with this product. However, there are cases where the product is faulty. Then, these broadcast meteorologists become that person at the returns desk that has to explain why the product is faulty. With experience in retail, I have worked the
service desk. Customers have come in looking for an explanation and let me tell you, these people are not nice about it. They come in blowing steam and think they rule the retail business. The same thing happens with broadcasts meteorologists. Even though
the product cannot be returned, the public has an earful to say. Sometimes it is so bad, that their email and voice mail are filled to capacity with messages. Even worse is when the public think we have control over the weather. They expect us to fix it when it doesn’t cooperate. If the public isn’t happy, then most likely the station manager feels the same way.

Now what happens if the customer doesn’t want to talk to the cashier? Instead, they would rather talk to a manager. The manager of this retail business is the National Weather Service. Every broadcaster that doesn’t work for the NWS looks up to them for
leadership. The NWS usually gets the most complaints, because of the responsibilities that they have. They must sell the product for the right condition. If they sell the wrong
product (clear skies) for the wrong situation (severe storms), then there will be many complaints. It’s like buying a dish sponge to clean your car. It just doesn’t make sense.

So hopefully you can see what I am getting at. Meteorology is just a retail business. The models are the companies that produce the products; forecasts. Then broadcast
meteorologists are the sales and cashiers of this retail business. The NWS are the managers that oversee the business. I never thought that I would work in retail ever again, but truth be told, I will be working in it for the rest of my life.

-Ben L